Liams Last post: June 2011

Friday, June 24, 2011

Liams Last Post : Liams Departure from Merrion...

Subject: Liams Last Post : Liams Departure from Merrion...

Here is My News !!! Thank you for all your support during my time in Merrion. It has been an exciting 6 years ! There is nothing as constant or as invigorating as change in this business. I look forward to the next phase and I hope to chat to you myself over the next few days. In the meantime have a good Weekend , I will. Liam --------------------------------------------------------------------------- I regret to say that, after six years with Merrion Stockbrokers, Liam has announced that he feels that it is the right time for him to depart Merrion to take his career in a new direction. He promises that he will reveal what that is in the very near future.

Liam Joined Merrion in 2005 from ABN AMRO, initially as Head of Research just prior to the acquisition by Landsbanki of Merrion. Liam led and shaped the research product through a very successful period and was heavily involved in the project to integrate Merrion's institutional business into the Landsbanki broker network which included Merrion , Kepler and Teather and Greenwood. Liam took on the role of Head of International Equities in 2008, returning to a sales role to build the business of distributing Kepler European Equity Research to Irish Institutions. The success of this project was impacted by the collapse of Landsbanki and the consequent separate MBO's of both Merrion and Kepler, as both companies moved to pursue their separate strategies. Liam then returned to a largely Specialist Irish Equity sales role for the past two years. His efforts during his time with Merrion has earned him the title of 'Best Irish Equity Strategist' and a number 2 ranking for Irish Equity Sales in the 2009 Finance Survey of Irish Stockbrokers.

Liam has remained enthusiastically committed to Merrion during our restructuring and we thank him for this. He will remain with Merrion until mid July in order to ensure a smooth transition of client responsibilities.

We wish Liam the very best of luck in his future career.

Kind regards,

Shane Nolan (Head Of Stockbroking)

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Merrion Stockbrokers is a member firm of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.
Merrion Stockerbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.
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Thursday, June 2, 2011

Liams Last Post : US Non Farm data beckons, Oil inventories build, CRH heads south and Tullow CEO says not a takeover candidate.

Good Afternoon,

Well the excitement builds here ( For me tomorrow is the last day before a week off in the Sun with my extended in laws and outlaws and kids. Should be fun. For the market the build up is to the Non Farm payroll number tomorrow with consensus being cut dramatically post the ADP number yesterday. The Slight drop in US jobless claims last week was not enough to calm fears about the economic slowdown , the optimists say that a host of temporary factors have been at play which have throwing up misleading data since the Earthquake in Japan has put pressure on supply chains and disrupted manufacturing activity dependent Japanese components .

Markets tried to rally this morning after a weak start but gave up on that idea. There is a certain amount of scepticism re the Euro strengthening or is that the dollar weakening with another Bailout on the cards and rumours re a deal on a further package for Greece. By now the consensus on Ireland seems to have shifted to a recognition that it is not the prospect of default that is going to kill Ireland but the delay in defaulting as the world realises that the Irish taxpayer is effectively bailing out the German and French banks and the ECB...

Major build in US DOE Crude Oil Inventories (May 27) W/W 2878K vs. Exp. -1600K (Prev. 616K) and gasoline inventories, which surged to 2553K vs expectations of 900K. I have seen suggestions that Crude and other commodities prices will fall or be manipulated lower in order to facilitate QE3 from lower levels to stimulate demand again ? so many theories...so much pushing on a string.

Ryanair pushed its nose into the sunlight this afternoon and got to a new high post the results and the cautious wanring that caused the stock to drop by -5% on the news of their guidance announcement. Falling oil prices and a bullish story helping here. Aer Lingus being dragged up on its coat tails.

Aidan Heavy of Tullow gave interview in Dublin today saying that he does not think Tullow will be taken over and suggesting that on the contrary to does not want to be taken over. He went on to say that he thought that the Tweneboa oil field could turn put to be a big as Jubilee. Good and bullish news but had little impact on the price which fell -5% in Dublin but the volume trades in sterling and this fell only -1.2%

CRH continues to head south now , I think that this one is worth covering back for all who so0ld it higher at about eur14 though if the double dip actually bites the lows of the Eur 12.00 level are still there again to be tested. The support at eur14 though may prove difficult to penetrate.

Have a good evening

Liam

Disclaimer: www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878)
is a limited liability company whose registered office is at
Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.

Liams Last Post : DCC Investor Day adds little new news , US data triggers sell off (-2.2%) in USA

Good Afternoon,

I have unfortunately no feedback as yet from the Paddy Power investor day in London. There was feedback from Gerard re the DCC investor day. It seemed to me to achieve little except to establish yet again that DCC is now a company run by a bunch of sincere guys who move slowly , who are driven by returns and a reticence to do anything to disturb the returns pattern. The presentations gave lots of divisional details and was attended by Dublini brokers ,DCC staff and a lot of existing DCC shareholders. They have an appetite for deals but no seeming urgency to do bigger or more aggressive ones. Even they see the contrast between the more aggressive deal style of Rubis and its valuation and their conservative style and their rating. It was left for attendees to draw their own conclusions about the possibilities for corporate re-structuring in the form of disposals of the smaller businesses. DCC would appear to not be feeling the pressure from investors that a modicum of excitement might be nice. Don’t get me wrong. This is a great company , it is hard to sell it an idea all the time though as there is little newsflow and it tends to range trade with unexpected moves driven by deal flow. It is a pension stock , good returns a buy , Hold and Put away kind of stock and it is not that easy also for analysts to get a hold of the numbers and do proper innovative added value analysis so guidance from the company plays a big part in shaping forecasts with the spread of their businesses.

The ADP employment data followed by a weak ISM number in the USA helped create a lot of angst in the afternoon.

The dollar weakened and the DOW Jones fell -2% to break thus far a predictable pattern of First day of the month positive returns. The market will worry now that the recent strength of the market has been purely technically driven and has had no impact on generating sustainable recovery in the USA which is a real concern.

Ryanair continues to benefit from the positive momentum of the management post results road show and closed +3% today. CRH gave up the ghost this afternoon after it was helped this morning by a Merrill Lynch (BOFA) positive recommendation.

Smurfit too gave up -2.5%. I have been a bear of this one and have been right recently but I am a tad more circumspect now that I see that Input prices for waste recycled boxes OCC have fallen and Testliner prices have continued to rise. I would think this may provide a catalyst for a rally. Gotta do a bit more work on this one but it looks interesting.

Have a good evening

Liam