Liams Last Post : Spain next to be cut by S+P adds to the nerves , AIB AGM

Good Afternoon

 

I was out of the office meeting clients yesterday and talking about how Ireland was beyond the inflection point , that we are in an upgrade cycle and that now that Bank of Ireland has launched the re-capitalisation process with a successful placing to Institutions of the first tranche of Eur500m (apparently 3x to 4x oversubscribed ) and that this alone would begin to focus attention on the rest of the market and to other stocks.  Indeed yesterday saw three International brokers upgrade their recommendations on CRH , Smurfit Kappa and AIB.

 

I managed to be busy enough that I got a shock at the scale of the mark down in prices of stocks after the announcement by S&P of their down grade of Greek Sovereign Debt to Junk status. Up to this the Greek issue was all talk but markets were focussed on earnings prospects and the definite signs of economic recovery and were prepared to ignore Greece.

 

Today , was another nervous day with markets opein sharply lower again then bouncing and closing weak after S&P cut the Spanish rating to AA.

 

Sovereign debt fears are now the primary driver of markets.

 

AIB today at the AGM said that the management team,  led by Group Managing  Director Colm Doherty,  has until 31 December to take the actions to meet our capital requirements and that the group has a series  of actions planned  in this regard, however,  if  they are  not able to meet the regulatory  requirements through these planned actions,  then

the Government will provide the additional capital needed. This would see the state increasing its  stake in the bank. The extent of  the Government's stake will become clearer in the coming months.  AIB's self-help  plan involves the sale of UK and Polish businesses - and stake in M&T. The capital raising  plan also includes  an equity issue  targeted at  private

investors which will be underwritten by international investment banks or the Government.  The market was unimpressed by AIB continuing to talk the talk but not yet walk the walk and the shares fell in line with their Bank of Ireland peers down -2.5%.

 

 

Markets are nervous …

 

Have a good evening

 

Liam

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.

 

 

 

 

Liams Last Post : Bank of Ireland launches re-cap. CRH touches high not seen since june 2008.

Good Afternoon,

 

Well the day finally arrived and the Bank of Ireland Capital raising details were announced. What was surprising was the absolute lack of any real surprises. All the details had been effectively leaked in advance and the details which were missing were just the pricing and the conversion details. All of which were very favourable to shareholders. The State obviously happy to offer favourable terms as the state will be the largest shareholder at 36% after the capital raising.  The first stage of the process , the firm placing of eur500m at 1.53 took place today and once books closed at midday the price pushed ahead to close +5% on the day.  Decent demand for this segment augurs well for decent interest in the market for the nil paids when the rights issue itself kicks off on May 17^th.

 

The positive sentiment towards Bank of Ireland was also reflected in the performance of AIB which was up +4.3% for the day.

 

The markets were dominated by news and fears about Greece as greek bond yields soared dragging the rest of the PIGS  Countries yields higher also.

 

International markets all had a good day with average performances in the range of +1% though the DOW is only up +0.5% at 4.45pm

 

The construction stocks continued to build on their rally with CRH closing at eur22 , its highest level since June 2008 ….

 

INM also sneaking higher +4.3% today and Smurfit rallied +2%,

 

Have a good evening ,

 

 

Liam

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.

 

 

 

 

Liams Last Post : Greencore looks interesting to me , CRH too showing strength , the banks D-Day is coming...

Good Afternoon ,

 

Markets had a good day to day with European airspace opening and Irish Airspace threatening to open but closing again.  The Eurostoxx50 index up +1.5% , Ireland +1.36% and London +1% with the US market up a more moderate +0.5% . Goldman Sachs in the eye of their own particular storm beat earnings estimates which may or may not have been politically the wisest move if they had any charges to throw at their accounts they may have helped win a tad more sympathy.

 

The Banks continue to find favour as we get ever loser to D-Day for the Bank of Ireland recapitalisation.

 

Aer Lingus announced that the Volcanic disruptions are costing them between 4m to 5m per day and so they will be hopeful of the cloud dissipating.Ryanair have made no similar announceenr but the consensus appears to suggest that the cost to them is in the region of Eur12m per day.

 

Glanbia had an update re the proposed sale of the Dairy business to the Co-OP. The price seems to be in line with expectations to a little better and earnings estimates look like they are on the rise for the residual business. The conference call was well received and the stock jumped +8% today.

 

Looking at the chart I sent out today showing the year to date comparative performance between Glanbia , Aryzta , Kerry and Greencore highlights the significant underperformance by Greencore  so far and with the investor day looming ever close I think this could act as a catalyst for this one to start to move and close the gap again.

 

Paddy Power took no time in rebounding after the weakness yesterday and close up +2.55% at 25.74. 

 

The building materials stocks are starting to show signs of life and CRH does look as though it is trying to break out positively from the range it has been in. It has been si successfully range traded for ages though so when it breaks out the move could be significant.  

 

Have a good evening

 

Liam

 

  

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.

 

 

 

 

Liams Last Post : Airlines due to takeoff ? the Banks look ok.

Good Afternoon ,

 

Markets closed on Monday in perkier mood. The Airline sector rallied this afternoon after sharp falls this morning when Aircraft started to be flown again tentatively mind you but certainly a big resumption of traffic across Europe. At 15:30pm today the UK air traffic control centre NATS said that UK airspace would begin to re-open tomorrow from 07:00am in Scotland and gradually move southwards. It said it is a assuming there are no further significant ash emissions we are now looking at a continuously improving situation," it said that this is a dynamic and changing situation and is therefore difficult to forecast beyond 0700 (BST) local.

Aer Lingus and Ryanair wee both down -4% at the end of the day but there was definitely a slightly ore optimistic tone to the airline sector with the news of a potential resumption of flying and a few brokers writing and modelling that the airlines were discounting a much worse scenario that is the likely scenario.

The Irish Financials were the best performing sector with OK results from M&T and the weekend press indicating that the market can expect Bank of Ireland to trigger their Capital raising next week drove positive sentiment. The Goldman Sachs rebuttal of the Fraud charge also played well and gave some comfort to markets

The building materials stocks pulled back on low volume with Grafton falling -4.5% after the rally of last week. Remains range bound ….but a laggard and starting to get my attention more and more.

Paddy Power also gave back a chuck of ground back to the Eur25 level. Given what we learned in our survey , the weakness does seem to present an opportunity to get involved at these levels.

 

Have a good evening.

 

Liam

 

 

________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.

 

 

 

 

lLiams Last Post : Bank of Ireland , Independent News and CRH the movers today against a weak background.

Good Afternoon

 

Markets rallied at the of this morning having opened well below yesterday's levels, Markets saw their highs at about 1pm then basically gave up al the gains in a straight line dive this afternoon.

 

There were two significant pieces of news in Ireland today. Firstly Bank of Ireland announced the measure s they are committing to ahead of a decision by the EU re their new business strategy and the actions they have to take to satisfy the EU requirements. They committed themselves to disposals including the New Ireland Life Assurance business (c.19% market share), Bank of Ireland Asset Management (c.€25B of AUM), and ICS Building Society (the disposal might include €2B of mortgage loans and €4B of deposits) as well as some smaller businesses (US f/x business FCE, Paul Capital and the Irish Credit Bureau).  Additionally, BoI has reiterated that it will commit to winding down its broker originated UK mortgage book (c.€30B) and the c.€4B international corporate lending portfolio.  Looking at the potential disposals, BoI indicates that the businesses included c.€7B of loans, €4B of deposits, and represented c.€0.9B of risk weighted assets.  For the 9 months to the end of Dec 09, BoI estimates the potential disposals generated c.€200m of revenue, €90m of pre-provision operating profit and €40m of underlying pbt.  The restructuring measures are expected to be implemented over the period to Dec 2014.  The potential disposals would reduce fee based income streams but would reduce normalised profit forecasts by less than 10%.

 

The  second important piece of news was that Denis O'Brien has raised his stake in INM and has overtaken the O'Reilly family as the largest shareholder. The market will look now at what O'Briens long term interests are in the company and also to see if the O'Reilly family can find the money to increase their stake to match the level of O'Brien. Denis O'Brien's moves to an 18.6% stake from 13.8% . INM shares were up a further 5% today.

The Airline bad news due to the Volcano put European airlines under pressure and may have created a buying opportunity in Aer Lingus with the stock down -3.4% on the day.

CRH was a notable performer to day, it has been a laggard despite the dollar strength recently and CRH moved sharply when a London bulge bracket broker identified it as a potential opportunity. CRH rallied +3.6% today.

Markets closed on a low today in Europe and the Dow looks like it might slip once again below the 11000 level.

Have a good weekend

Liam

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.

 

 

 

 

Liams Last Post : Ireland weak against the trend though Banks and do ok...

Good Afternoon ,

 

Interesting strength in the smaller exploration stocks which have been showing signs of life recently. Petroneft continued its recent run up another +7% today.  Norkom which is a stock we like also showed some signs f life up +4.2% and AIB and Bank of Ireland also creeping better. AIB driven by rumours of up to 10 suitors being interested in the Polish operation BZWBK which AIB is being told to sell by the Minister.

Glanbia was also up after a successful presentation yesterday outlining the opportunities for their residual businesses post the disposal of the Dairy division The Farmers Journal today has a story suggesting that the terms of the deal will be announced next week.

 

Merrion published a significant piece of proprietary research today on Paddy Power which was conducted in association with the Racing Post. The conclusions support my own views of the stock but helpfully today also triggered an upgrade to the formal recommendation with Merrion concluding that we are now comfortable with our forecasts for the current and the following year but that there is potential upside to the forecasts. The stock has had a cracking run though since the week before the Cheltenham festival so despite our positive stance the stock actually fell -1.7%.

 

Ireland was down against the trend today with weakness in Smurfit Kappa -2.5% , Kingspan -2.5% , Aer Lingus -2.7% and United Drug -3.25% with Ryanair dragging down the index a little with its -1.8% performance.

 

The Airlines were weak due to the negative impact of the news that UK and Irish Airspace was closed to day and Ryanair were certainly offering full refunds to passengers whose flights were cancelled.

 

Wall Street which opened lower this afternoon rallied into positive territory but at 5pm is looking like it may re-test the days lows. Wall Street is still over 100 points above the 11000 level though many pundits have noted that the markets look overbought and susceptible to a bout of profit taking from these levels .

 

The Icelandic Volcano dominates the news today with major disruption to  , though the news that the Quinn Group has acquiesced to the appointment of permanent administrators will dominate the airways in Ireland tonight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.

 

 

 

 

Liams Last Post : Dow above 11000 , Greek bailout relief rally fades in Europe.

Good Afternoon ,

 

Well Monday started brightly with a relief strong opening after the EU had agreed to bail out the Greeks and avoid a showdown in the financial markets if the country failed to raise any money in the bond market as issue after issue recently has had to be done at ever higher yields which had gotten above 7%.  

 

European equity markets were a bit all over the place today , strong opening , slide off into the US open and a sharp recovery to leave markets just about flat. EuroStoxx 600 index -0.11% with Eurostoxx 50 index +0.33% , London had the same see saw ride closing +0.16% having been higher and lower…and Ireland managed to hit the bulls eye and close flat on Fridays close thanks to the lunchtime rally giving way into the close. The Dow Jones however has broken above 11000 today so we wait to see if it manages to hold above the level to the close.

 

There is more and more volume creeping back into the Banks , I like the Bank of Ireland story particularly and think it should begin to be bought now. I like what I am hearing about the redemption of the Warrants and the conversion of the preference shares. I am also aware that all the big brand name London houses are now throwing their weight behind it so there is increasing institutional interest and many international investors who used to be involved now sniffing around here again. The rights issue will present opportunities but sub underwriting wont guarantee any stock so I think that the strategy has to be to start buying slowly now.     

The Ulster Bank construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed a further fall in construction activity for March but at a slower pace. The PMI rose to 42.3 in March, up form 40.4 in February . It was the weakest fall since October, 2007.  Simon Barry, Chief Economist at UB said "The Irish construction sector contracted for the 34th consecutive month in March – a statistic that highlights what a torrid time the sector has been having for most of the past three years."  However he sounded a note of optimism adding "However, the PMI managed to rise for the third month in a row and the March level is the highest reading seen in almost two and a half years. While the construction sector is lagging behind manufacturing and services, which are both now in the process of stabilising, at least the rate of contraction does look to be easing back."

The KBC Ireland/Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 61.9 in March, compared to a February reading of 59.4, indicating a rise in sentiment towards the current environment due to a more positive perception of the buying environment for major household durables. The index of current economic conditions increased to 87.6 from 78.8 in February, while the expectations index fell from 46.3 in February to 44.5 in March. This index hit an all-time low of 39.6 in July 2008.

 

In the High Court the hearing about whether to make the appointment of the provisional administrators to the Quinn Insurance business permanent was adjourned for a week. Though the Administrators left a report that they had prepared with the Judge for him to read.

 

No great stock price moves though I note the construction stocks were a bit weaker with Kingspan down -3%

 

 

 Have a good evening

 

Liam

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.

 

 

 

 

Liams Last Post : The greeks again...

Good Afternoon ,

 

 And so to no major surprise both the ECB and the Bank of England held rates unchanged. Markets to day continued to react to the growing unease about Greece and the increasing scepticism that the rescue plan which was announced in March wont work.  Two year Greek bond yields climbed to a massive 7.3% compared to Ireland and Portuguese Two year paper that was yielding the same at 1.67% and UK at 1.16% with Germany setting the standatrd yielding 0.89%

 

ECB chairman Mr Trichet has also said that the ECB will continue to accept securities with a minimum BBB- (or equivalent) rating "beyond the end of 2010″ (25 March), rather than reverting, as it had previously signalled, back to the 'standard' procedure of a minimum A- rating from at least one rating agency.

 

We are meeting bank of Ireland management shortly which should be a very interesting meeting in the light of recent events and to try and get a handle on the mechanics of their capital raising plans from here.

 

At the close Ireland had clawed bank the earlier losses to finish in line with yesterday with some positive performances from AIB which turned around late in the day and Irish life  and the construction stocks though CRH closed -0.6% on the day. 

 

Ryanair also rallied in the afternoon and Aer Lingus which had been up 3.3% at one stage closed down -1.3%

 

 

The biggest mover was Glanbia on the back of a story in the Independent newspaper about the co-op paying potentially a lot more than previous market expectations, What a win win deal thus far for both the co-op and the Plc without the terms finally being announced. The downside though that the market is overlooking is that the price paid will largely dictate the scale of the disposal of Glanbia shares into the market but the market is happy to start ascribing a decent rating now to the residual businesses even before the Glanbia investor day next week. 

 

Have a good evening.   

 

Liam

  

 

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.

 

 

 

 

Liams Last Post : AIB upgraded , Homebonf registrations still falling , Cider duty suspended

Good Afternoon,

 

The graphics of the daily market charts look like something from a heart monitor with the series of peaks and troughs ultimately with markets closing in the region of -0.25% in London -0.5% in Europe and the USA down -0.35% as the market deals with another bout of Greek nerves and the news that the IMF inspectors have arrived to spend a couple of weeks devising the plan for Greece. The Greece/European Union/International Monetary Fund announcement of a couple of weeks ago has not impacted on Greek borrowing costs nor has it helped calm the markets. There is a credibility problem here and markets as we all have learned hate uncertainty and so a rocky ride for a few weeks potentially lies ahead.

 

AIB was upgraded from a Sell to a Buy by RBS in a reversal of recommendation which reflects the increasing certainty but gives them them benefit of the doubt about a difficult an complex capital raising exercise. Personally I prefer the Bank of Ireland story though I too have been caught out with the scale of the price moves. With such a considerable retail shareholding structure there will surely be plenty of stock to go around in the rights issue when it is announced . The good news from BOI perspective is the higher the price the less shares it has to issue.

 

Homebond today released its registration data for March. This structural insurance data, coupled with Premier Guarantee's data (due for release in the next few days), is a proxy for house-starts in Ireland. Homebond traditionally accounts for circa 75% of registration data, with Premier Guarantee accounting for circa 25%, although the monthly breakdown between the two has been more erratic of late due to the size of the numbers being reported. The absolute number of registrations with Homebond in March was 131, down by 69.0% yoy, compared with 149 registrations in February (-67.3% yoy) and 149 registrations in January (-27.0% yoy). Staggering but we are now dealing with the law of small numbers and the numbers are still falling…

 

Ryanair has released traffic statistics for the month of March, with load factor in the month +2ppts yoy at 79%. Capacity growth in the month was 10% yoy at 6.7m seats, with passenger numbers +13% to 5.3m passengers. Last week, Ryanair increased its FY10 guidance to profit after tax of not less than €310m (previously €275m) as a result of "somewhat stronger than expected passenger bookings, at better than expected yields during later February and March."

 

It looks like the Conservatives won the cider battle with Labour today. The UK Government has suspended plans for a 10 per cent tax increase on cider until after the general election. The proposals to increase cider duty, which were part of the Finance Bill announced by Chancellor Alistair Darling in last week's budget, have been put on hold as the government rushes to pass all legislation before Parliament dissolves on 12 April. While the Conservative party has vowed not to impose the tax if they win the general election on 6 May, Labour has said if they return to government for a fourth term, they will reinstate the cider duty.

Have a good evening

Liam

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.

 

 

 

 

Liams last Post : Bank Of ireland takes off, AIB makes NAMA transfers and Aer Lingus succumbs to a bout of profit taking.

Good Afternoon ,

 

Against a background of generally positive European markets today , Ireland was up +0.93% . Bank of Ireland was the feature today in Dublin with the stock up over 11%. There is institutional buying of the stock now and this interest now that the NAMA transfers have begun and that there is finally clarity about the amounts of Capital to be raised.

 

 NAMA issues a statement out indicating the first transfers from AIB have occurred. €3.29B of loans transferred for €1.9B of NAMA bonds. The 42% discount is less than the 43% indicated last week, but the actual numbers, look pretty much the same as last week's figures. If the total discount on NAMA transfers was 1% better than assumed on €23B, then the regulator's recap amount for AIB would be reduced by c.€230m, if it can be shown to the regulator by 30^th June. 

 

Markets were a bit up and down today after the Easter Break , not much to get ones teeth into in Ireland but there was a lot of research produced by brokers today upgrading their Ryanair forecasts post the profit upgrade last Thursday afternoon.  Ar Lingus succumbed to a bout of profit taking today with the stock down just under -4%. The stock looks a tad overbought in the short term but against the background of rising yields , and with the prospects of a much reduced cost base , this one looks very interesting now after a prolonged period of relative underperformance that this one looks like breaking out on the upside.  Watch this space.

 

There was an interesting note of caution this morning in the Wall Street Journal as they reported a drop in the numbers of share prices making new highs in the USA. This indicator has been a reliable indicator of an onset of volatility in the past.

 

After a strong day yesterday in the USA , the Dow opened lower but as the afternoon wore on in Europe the Dow progressively rallied to almost the closing levels by 4,30pm this afternoon.

 

CRH which looked like it was struggling has been remarkably resilient over the past few days  as has the rest of the sector but Grafton has been struggling against the grain. .

 

I hear that one of our competitors has raised forecasts for economic growth for next year on the back of the banks getting re-capitalised which should help recovery prospects.  I hope that they are right.

 

Today Gordon Brown has ended months of speculation and finally declared the date for  the UK election to be May 6^th . Now we will see what the city really thinks of the prospects of the Conservatives getting in to power or whether there is any chance of Labour hanging on ….and what actions a new UK government will have to take to start to address the fall out from the recession and their own bank bailouts which have been put on the long finger ahead of the election.

 

 

Hope you had a good Easter Break,

 

Have a good evening

 

Liam

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.

 

 

 

 

Liams Last Post : Happy Easter

Good Afternoon ,

 

What a week for markets…On a  5 day view the market is up a staggering +1.16% as the banks and CRH combined to fall then rally to provide some relief . The Eurostoxx 50 index also was up just 1% so despite the apparent strength , the market is making heavy weather of going anywhere with plenty of volatility to catch you off guard.

 

Ryanair caught caught us by surprise today with their profit upgrade. April Fools day was a rather ironic moment to announce it though.  The Ryanair news was welcome and it triggered a rally in the share pruice . Aer Lingus too looks like it is breaking out of the relative period of underperformance and this could continue to move ahead from herew.

 

It is hard to get ones head around the scale of the Anglo Irish Bank disaster for the taxpayer in Ireland and harder to comprehend that the last CEO is effectively hiding now in Boston and refusing to be doorstepped by RTE but also that Sean Fitzpatricks loans would necessitate a provision of 68m against them. It is galling that the management of Anglo talked about the quality of their lending , about the fact that all their lending was asset backed , cash flow supported with personal recourse. How could we have all fallen for such a tissue of lies when it is now apparent that the capital values and the cashflows of these loans just don't meet the criteria.

 

Meanwhile we wait now for the EU verdicts on the Irish Banks business plans and try and guesstimate what the best way to play the Irish Banks… One thing for sure… there is going to be plenty of newsflow and plenty of action from here on. Methinks they are a buy sooner rather than later and detect plenty of interest on the sidelines awaiting details of the pricing and mechanics of the capital raisings.  We may even get some form of a market back….

 

Tomorrow markets are closed but the US non farm payroll number is coming our anyway. It will set the tone for Tuesday…

 

I think the number will be weak . The consensus is +184000 but the weather was shocking in the USA during that particular time.  

 

Have a Happy Easter

 

Good Evening ,

 

Liam

 

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.