Liams last Post : Bank Of ireland takes off, AIB makes NAMA transfers and Aer Lingus succumbs to a bout of profit taking.

Good Afternoon ,

 

Against a background of generally positive European markets today , Ireland was up +0.93% . Bank of Ireland was the feature today in Dublin with the stock up over 11%. There is institutional buying of the stock now and this interest now that the NAMA transfers have begun and that there is finally clarity about the amounts of Capital to be raised.

 

 NAMA issues a statement out indicating the first transfers from AIB have occurred. €3.29B of loans transferred for €1.9B of NAMA bonds. The 42% discount is less than the 43% indicated last week, but the actual numbers, look pretty much the same as last week's figures. If the total discount on NAMA transfers was 1% better than assumed on €23B, then the regulator's recap amount for AIB would be reduced by c.€230m, if it can be shown to the regulator by 30^th June. 

 

Markets were a bit up and down today after the Easter Break , not much to get ones teeth into in Ireland but there was a lot of research produced by brokers today upgrading their Ryanair forecasts post the profit upgrade last Thursday afternoon.  Ar Lingus succumbed to a bout of profit taking today with the stock down just under -4%. The stock looks a tad overbought in the short term but against the background of rising yields , and with the prospects of a much reduced cost base , this one looks very interesting now after a prolonged period of relative underperformance that this one looks like breaking out on the upside.  Watch this space.

 

There was an interesting note of caution this morning in the Wall Street Journal as they reported a drop in the numbers of share prices making new highs in the USA. This indicator has been a reliable indicator of an onset of volatility in the past.

 

After a strong day yesterday in the USA , the Dow opened lower but as the afternoon wore on in Europe the Dow progressively rallied to almost the closing levels by 4,30pm this afternoon.

 

CRH which looked like it was struggling has been remarkably resilient over the past few days  as has the rest of the sector but Grafton has been struggling against the grain. .

 

I hear that one of our competitors has raised forecasts for economic growth for next year on the back of the banks getting re-capitalised which should help recovery prospects.  I hope that they are right.

 

Today Gordon Brown has ended months of speculation and finally declared the date for  the UK election to be May 6^th . Now we will see what the city really thinks of the prospects of the Conservatives getting in to power or whether there is any chance of Labour hanging on ….and what actions a new UK government will have to take to start to address the fall out from the recession and their own bank bailouts which have been put on the long finger ahead of the election.

 

 

Hope you had a good Easter Break,

 

Have a good evening

 

Liam

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

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