Liams Last Post : Happy Easter

Good Afternoon ,

 

What a week for markets…On a  5 day view the market is up a staggering +1.16% as the banks and CRH combined to fall then rally to provide some relief . The Eurostoxx 50 index also was up just 1% so despite the apparent strength , the market is making heavy weather of going anywhere with plenty of volatility to catch you off guard.

 

Ryanair caught caught us by surprise today with their profit upgrade. April Fools day was a rather ironic moment to announce it though.  The Ryanair news was welcome and it triggered a rally in the share pruice . Aer Lingus too looks like it is breaking out of the relative period of underperformance and this could continue to move ahead from herew.

 

It is hard to get ones head around the scale of the Anglo Irish Bank disaster for the taxpayer in Ireland and harder to comprehend that the last CEO is effectively hiding now in Boston and refusing to be doorstepped by RTE but also that Sean Fitzpatricks loans would necessitate a provision of 68m against them. It is galling that the management of Anglo talked about the quality of their lending , about the fact that all their lending was asset backed , cash flow supported with personal recourse. How could we have all fallen for such a tissue of lies when it is now apparent that the capital values and the cashflows of these loans just don't meet the criteria.

 

Meanwhile we wait now for the EU verdicts on the Irish Banks business plans and try and guesstimate what the best way to play the Irish Banks… One thing for sure… there is going to be plenty of newsflow and plenty of action from here on. Methinks they are a buy sooner rather than later and detect plenty of interest on the sidelines awaiting details of the pricing and mechanics of the capital raisings.  We may even get some form of a market back….

 

Tomorrow markets are closed but the US non farm payroll number is coming our anyway. It will set the tone for Tuesday…

 

I think the number will be weak . The consensus is +184000 but the weather was shocking in the USA during that particular time.  

 

Have a Happy Easter

 

Good Evening ,

 

Liam

 

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

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