Liams Last Post : AIB upgraded , Homebonf registrations still falling , Cider duty suspended

Good Afternoon,

 

The graphics of the daily market charts look like something from a heart monitor with the series of peaks and troughs ultimately with markets closing in the region of -0.25% in London -0.5% in Europe and the USA down -0.35% as the market deals with another bout of Greek nerves and the news that the IMF inspectors have arrived to spend a couple of weeks devising the plan for Greece. The Greece/European Union/International Monetary Fund announcement of a couple of weeks ago has not impacted on Greek borrowing costs nor has it helped calm the markets. There is a credibility problem here and markets as we all have learned hate uncertainty and so a rocky ride for a few weeks potentially lies ahead.

 

AIB was upgraded from a Sell to a Buy by RBS in a reversal of recommendation which reflects the increasing certainty but gives them them benefit of the doubt about a difficult an complex capital raising exercise. Personally I prefer the Bank of Ireland story though I too have been caught out with the scale of the price moves. With such a considerable retail shareholding structure there will surely be plenty of stock to go around in the rights issue when it is announced . The good news from BOI perspective is the higher the price the less shares it has to issue.

 

Homebond today released its registration data for March. This structural insurance data, coupled with Premier Guarantee's data (due for release in the next few days), is a proxy for house-starts in Ireland. Homebond traditionally accounts for circa 75% of registration data, with Premier Guarantee accounting for circa 25%, although the monthly breakdown between the two has been more erratic of late due to the size of the numbers being reported. The absolute number of registrations with Homebond in March was 131, down by 69.0% yoy, compared with 149 registrations in February (-67.3% yoy) and 149 registrations in January (-27.0% yoy). Staggering but we are now dealing with the law of small numbers and the numbers are still falling…

 

Ryanair has released traffic statistics for the month of March, with load factor in the month +2ppts yoy at 79%. Capacity growth in the month was 10% yoy at 6.7m seats, with passenger numbers +13% to 5.3m passengers. Last week, Ryanair increased its FY10 guidance to profit after tax of not less than €310m (previously €275m) as a result of "somewhat stronger than expected passenger bookings, at better than expected yields during later February and March."

 

It looks like the Conservatives won the cider battle with Labour today. The UK Government has suspended plans for a 10 per cent tax increase on cider until after the general election. The proposals to increase cider duty, which were part of the Finance Bill announced by Chancellor Alistair Darling in last week's budget, have been put on hold as the government rushes to pass all legislation before Parliament dissolves on 12 April. While the Conservative party has vowed not to impose the tax if they win the general election on 6 May, Labour has said if they return to government for a fourth term, they will reinstate the cider duty.

Have a good evening

Liam

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.