Good Afternoon ,
The slide continues with no sign of abating , this week differed a tad from last week in so far as the highpoint for the ISEQ was Wednesday rather than Monday but the low point for the week is the close on Friday. The ISEQ close at 1939 is the lowest level now since mid 1993.
This was a week where the results season in Ireland went pretty much according to plan with no major surprises in any way. No one was expecting riveting good news but there was definitely a sense that while an upturn might be a long way away, that there was harmony between expectations and reality and share prices are finding it somewhat harder to fall now that they are pushing against tangible book value or defensible valuation metrics.
The banking crisis in the US and the raft of very weak economic statistics has led to another major leg down in the US market which is trading at the low of the week as we speak and Europe has had a turgid week with of results with analysts cutting forecasts across the board. I personally still get the sense that European analyst expectations are too high and that there is a degree of optimism which has not been beaten ot the analysts despite the rapid fall in European share prices.
I was looking forward to today , thought I would get a pleasant surprise in terms of performance but even after the initial brighter opening , it did not take long before the markets gave away all the initial optimism. There was a bout of hope around lunchtime but that too was thwarted after a rally based on hope rather than any real expectation. And towards the end of the day the realisation that the pull downwards is inexorable.
I am not sure I have the heart to even look at share prices today. The banks put on a valiant effort with AIB +26%, Bank of Ireland +48% at 18.5c. ( and in the Insomnia coffee index stakes , after todays rally it only requires 17.6 Bank of Ireland shares to buy a Grande Skinny Latte. Perhaps the best comparison this season is to say that it only requires 2.7 Bank of Ireland shares to buy a price reduced (50c) cadburys Crème Egg. I have a mate who has a senior role in Bank Of Ireland, was telling me not so long ago that a colleague had told him that he would buy more Bank of Ireland shares if they fell below the price of the Irish Times but within 3 months not only has it fallen below his level but 10 Bank of Ireland shares are required to buy one Irish Times.
Outside the financials CRH continued to suffer from profit taking after the initial strong run and now with Sellers selling the ordinaries to fund the takeup of their rights and some further pressure on the sector after Wolseley too announced its £1bn placing and rights issue.
Elan continues to get walloped , a trend which has accelerated , it is down -9% today. And ICON is also down -11%
Total produce did ok again , it is just so cheap.
Ryanair fell -2% as did Easyjet but Air Berlin was down -4.5% . Smurfit was down -6.3% after Hugo Chaves seized forestry lands from them in Venezuela.
Independent News and Media was down a further -3.8%
And so it goes on….
Have a good weekend….
Liam
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