Liams Last Post : Suddenly there appears to be silver lining in them there clouds...

Good Afternoon ,

Well it certainly feels like that …. First today we had Denguib finishing in 3^rd place in the Cheltenham opener. The fate of Denguib was a much publicised special on the part of Paddy Power who decided to take on the favourite and set the tome for their aggressive stance during Cheltenham. The short priced favourite failed to deliver and the paddy power promise to return all losing bets should he woin came to nought. There was a short lived but immediate +2% spike in the price of Paddy Power this afternoon. Don't Forget ,,,,I think these guys are smart and have a plan…still one of my favourite long term winner ideas albeit stuck in a range recently.

The Cue for the strength on the markets this  afternoon came with the news from S&P that thay have taken Greece of the negative watch list saying that the recent measures taken are sufficient. Given markets have been fixated with Greece , this can only be good news…

In Ireland the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) sold €1.5 billion of bonds , a 4.6%  2016 bond and a 4.5% 2020 bond in an auction today, The auction was part of the NTMA's €20 billion funding programme for 2010.Total bids for the issue were €4.915 billion, 3.3 times the amount on offer.
The 4.6 per cent treasury bond for 2016 was oversubscribed 4.5 times the amount allocated, while €1 billion of the 4.5 per cent bond for 2020 was issued, with bids of 2.6 times the allocated amount received. The 2016 bond was sold at an average yield of 3.479 per cent while the 2020 bond was sold at an average yield of 4.426 per cent, the smallest premium over the equivalent in safer German government bonds since December 2008. The 10-year Irish/German bond yield spread remained close to pre-auction levels of around 130 bps, while the Greek/German spread fell about 10 bps to 299 bps. This is great news for Ireland and highlights that the financial markets are now effectively seeing Irish Yield spreads over Germany as a yield pick up opportunity rather than a risk trade…

As for AIB , the exchange offer announced yesterday could possibly generate a chunk of Capital maybe as much as eur600m but the increased interest costs associated with the issue of more expensive paper in the short term will add to the difficulties of generating profits into the future. It is all abut the short term capital requirements , AIB don't seem concerned about the price of the trade compared to the goal of sowing the market that they too can copy Bank of Ireland and make short term capital gains by offering terms which are very attractive to the existing bond holders. AIB customers beware , it is us wo will have to pay rates in excess of their  funding costs , that is for those lucky enough to be able to get loans…

Kingspan was +5% today , Origin enterprises was +6% today, and Glanbia was -2% today…Yes one to watch , a back up the truck opportunity methinks at the right price…the thing is that there is a degree of uncertainty ahead of the finalisation of the terms of the deal and speculation about  the scale of the ultimate placing which is undoubtedly going to drag on the share price…I am excited about this one as a great trade in the making.

Tomorrow I will be at the St.Patricks day parade with my kids , tonight I celebrate my 14^th wedding anniversary,,,

You have a great evening and happy St.Patricks day.

Liam  

 

 

 

 

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Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

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