Liams Last post : Markets nosediving , US has broken down, Ireland and Europe in danger zone..

Good Afternoon

 

Well it is sunny in Dublin…and if you wear the right coloured tinted lenses the blood red colours dripping off the screens are hardly noticeable.

 

Well a rout today on relatively thin volume. The Dow Jones looks to have broken out oin the down side of its tradeing range with Europe , Ireland and the FTSE all near the bottom of their respective ranges having given away all the years gains in a very short space of time.

 

The last few weeks have been full of company meetings and once again , and it is reminiscent of 2008 , the stories are positive but told with conviction which is increasing rather than denial which was growing ever starker then  The mistake seems to be to meet any companies at all.

 

The macro picture is the driver , Spain is now fully in Focus. It is interesting that there are two I's in PIIGs now after a period of denial by markets.

 

Bank of Ireland stock TERP closed at an 8% discount to the Tangible book value that we are forecasting per share.  There was a rush to get into the stock at 1.80 c and up above 1.90c when the Taxpayer bought stock as the terms of the Bank of Ireland transaction were announced. Interestingly with the stock trading a full 33% lower, the bulls have all disappeared.

 

Yet another opportunity looms to buy stock at the bottom end of the range or one step closer to the second leg of the Great bear market of 2010. Some of the bears are smiling …. I am keeping a close eye on the ranges that the markets are in and noting that bull triggers are being ignored. A worrying time.

 

Smurfit remains one of the key indicators of sentiment… the bears looked to have the ascendancy here for a while but the stock is still resilient…It is the binary bet stock… if there is another leg to the credit crunch it is the biggest short around with the level of indebtedness…and conversely if this is a blip and meeting the management was re-assuring ,,,, then there is plenty to go for…if it breaks down below 6.60 however it will be a clear negative signal.

 

Meanwhile the Dollar and Sterling beneficiaries of Euro weakness are trading without any benefit of the potential earnings uplift.

 

As we approach 5pm , the Dow Jones index is nose diving again…hmmmm

 

Tomorrow is another day.

 

Have a good evening

 

Liam

 

 

 

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

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