Friday, October 30, 2009

Liams Last Post : Trick or Treat ? October a tough month for Irish Financials...

Good Afternoon ,

 

And so October grinds to a soggy and depressing end… The ISEQ index is down a whopping -14.16% for the month 

 

The Eurostoxx 50 index records a decline of -4.5% and London is down -1.75% whereas the Dow Jones is actually up 0.7% for the month.  

 

The list of winners and losers at the end of the Month shows the sharp fall ou of favour by the Banks with Bank of Ireland -49.9% and AIB down -41.6%. The Woes of Elan continue with a sharp rise in PML cases and some deaths and this has been reflected in a -27% performance.

 

In the less spectacular fallers , Ryanair whose results are due on Monday is down -13.5% and looks very oversold. This might benefit from some relief post results , it has given up a lot of ground lately.

 

Grafton -12%  and Norkom who we met a few weeks ago and were bullish but the story did not come across that well also fell -14% .

 

The top performers were the amongst the tiddlers and small exploration stocks. Irish Continental rallied on speculation of a resolution of the Carroll situation and a potential ultimate resolution of the future of the company which will ultimately come with a bid.

 

 Paddy Power which is one of my favourites stocks and ICON and Kerry recorded small positive  returns in the 1.5% to 3.5% range.   

 

The pull back does not look so pretty on the charts and there are stocks which have now clearly broken down out of their previously upward sloping trading ranges. The Banks sector across Europe looks particularly like a sector which to me looks like has a troubled time ahead of it to the end of the year.

 

The Wall Street relief rally of last night has been erased already. It was treated with scepticism initially this morning and then as the day wore on the negative sentiment which has been to the fore re asserted itself.

 

It is a miserable evening and I am afraid I don't like the feel for the start of November , I hope I am wrong but I don't see where the trigger to restart a rally will come from , Maybe I will be inspired over the weekend..

 

I have not given up hope but stocks are at or actually have broken down through critical levels so markets need to find some stability for the bottom of the trading ranges to hold and we might move up to the year end….

 

There is one thing for sure , that there are opportunities for those who need to get money into the market to do so now , this is the pullback that everyone was saying  they wanted…lets hope it gets bought…

 

Here is hoping…..Happy Halloween !!!    Feeling a tad ghoulish right now myself right now …. Trick or treat ?

 

Liam  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

 

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.

 

 

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment