Liams Last Post : client lack of conviction apparent on marketing trip ..

Good Afternoon ,

 

I have been out of the office for the last couple of days so the last post has been absent. Maybe a good thing ???

 

Market sentiment has taken a battering this week and there was a feeling that this was coming , I wrote about the technical analyst calling for a trend reversal , the volumes have been very light so it does not seem that strange that the breakout was on the downside though there is equally not much conviction on the sell side either , more  a buyers strike. 

 

I was on the road pushing the Irish equity case for 2010 , I have been developing more conviction myself that there is a trade in the financials through the NAMA transfer process and that once this happens that there might be scope for some positive surprise in terms fo the absolute amounts of capital that Bank of Ireland and AIB need to raise being lower than forecasts or worst fears. The problem marketing this is that as an Irish broker who kind of has to find Irish stocks to like is that clients wont grant much credibility to an Irish broker hawking Irish stocks at this point in time. 

 

This is an opportunity though...as it allows those who choose to really do their homework to see that there is in fact value here and the tipping point may be close to hand as the Bulge bracket international brokers start to initiate coverage on the financials with a positive view. I encountered a polite if sceptical audience , I don't think that they were especially convicted about any of the other markets either so it probably was a good barometer of sentiment which is best described as lacklustre. 

 

CRH got a good hearing , seems to be on lots of radars again now but everyone seemed to hold Holcim or Heidelberg. The argument against CRH is familiar , that they raised money and the deals that they thought they might get to do never materialised so the sceptics say that they wont be able to deploy the cash to generate acceptable returns.  It remains to be seen how well CRH do but I suspect now that they ar back on the acquisition tail , that the tipping point in perception is also a step nearer , especially as earnings now look like they are past the inflection point. 

 

Still plenty of opportunities ... and Tullow in the thick of Ugandan politics continues to find oil...Go on you good thing..

 

Have a good weekend

 

 

Liam

 

      

 

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

Disclaimer www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer.html

Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878) is a limited liability company whose registered office is at Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.