Quick one today... Irish market -1.3% , All markets succumbed to bout of profit taking , Alcoa figures in the US also did not help Dow jones which at 5pm is down -0.4% and Beiersdorf is also missed earnings in Europe which is off -1.11%.
In Ireland there was little substantive newsflow in the morning , the the Bank of Ireland EGM was certainly closely watched. There were some figures in the Chairmans statement but these were consistent with previous statements. The statement reiterates that BoI believes that the discount to book value that it receives should not be greater than the Finance Ministers 30% estimate. The statement indicated that while the regulatory capital position remains robust, market expectations have increased. BoI will look to address the issue after they have further certainty on the EC restructuring requirements and the impact of NAMA. They are exploring internal and external options with a view to identifying the best combination that will optimise the position of existing shareholders. The statement adds the commitment to rebuilding shareholder value and returning to dividend payments over time. On our estimates, BoI needs to raise c.2.8B to rebuild its end F2011 (March) equity tier I capital ratio to 8%. This is after including a 27% discount on transfers to NAMA within 8.3B of three year cumulative loan losses (F2009 F2011). We have a BUY rating on BoI and it is one of the Merrion preferred stocks for 2010.
There was some interesting and positive news for Elan. Biogen issued a statement this afternoon ahead of presenting at a healthcare conference in the US saying noted that at end December Tysabri commercial patient numbers were c. 48,200. This is slightly ahead of our forecasts of 47,500 patients at year end. We had been expecting a moderate slow down in recruitment due to the increased cases of PML reported over Q4, however weekly additions have remained broadly flat (100/week in the US and 115/week in ROW). This is a decent result for the drug and Elan has reacted slightly positively , up just +1.9%
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