Liams Last Post : CDS spreads come in , markes up , trading opportunities for the nimble .... ??

Good Afternoon ,

 

Markets in brighter form this afternoon after a better start this morning which was helped by the decent rally in the USA last night.

 

CDS spreads have been falling sharply in Greece and across the so called PIGS countries.  Technically the markets look finely balanced , the financials have ad a torrid time though the likes of BNP Paribas followed a trend in beating numbers today. Deutsche Boerse also pleased the market but the stock is badly beaten up at these levels so a rally comes as a welcome relief. 

 

I rushed to my desk clutching a coffee this morning at 6.45 to await the Bank of Ireland interim management statement. Instead of an IMS we got news that Bank of Ireland was going to change their fiscal year. A big step which brings them into line with their peers. The news was definitely an anti climax today. Ostensibly Bank of Ireland want to not be in close period when they get news from the EU re the business plan or news re NAMA and most importantly re a funding which has been much rumoured over the past week.

 

Volumes were light today , Portfolio managers wondering what to do , no one with bright ideas.

 

Ireland hit an interesting point on the house building side today with the news Premier Guarantee who released its registration data for January. This structural insurance data, coupled with Homebond's data (due for release in the next few days), is a proxy for house-starts in Ireland. Homebond traditionally accounts for circa 75% of registration data, with Premier Guarantee accounting for circa 25%, although the monthly breakdown between the two has been more erratic of late due to the size of the numbers being reported. There were zero registrations with Premier Guarantee in January.  

 

There as some supportive news for Norkom as NICE Systems, the owner of Actimize, which is Norkom's closest peer, issued Q4 and FY 2009 results. The company stated that the fourth quarter bookings and backlog were both record highs (although it is unclear how much of that was organic, with a number of acquisitions made by the company through 2009), although the company did note strong bookings across "almost all business and regions".  Norkonm was up +0.65% on a whopping 32000 share volumes…

 

I spent the day looking at individual stocks, and wondering about markets  Lots of stocks at critical leels , some have dropped a long way and look fundamentally cheap but the market is so caught up in trying to see what happens in Europe with the Greeks that no one is rushing to take big positions on the long or short side right now.

 

I think there are trading opportunities here for the nimble...I think tha Grafton may be a trade , that Smurfit might bounce from here to name but two..

 

Have a good evening

 

Liam

 

 

 

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

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