Liams Last Post : Kingspan tanks ahead of results , EU approves NAMA as banks test the euro level. Previews of next weeks results

Good Afternoon ,

 

Another week drags to a close , next week it is Irish reporting season in earnest and the markets have today given their verdict of fear ahead of the Kingspan news next Monday with the stock tumbling a scary -8.9%.  

 

The EU approved NAMA finally today so we wait for the Banks to get reporting and the first NAMA transfers so we can then focus for real on the recapitalisation process. Today was a landmark day as both AIB and Bank Of Ireland dipped below eur1,00 though Bank Of Ireland managed to close at exactly that price this afternoon.

 

Icon was the subject of debate yesterday , the stock fell -5% but today rallied by 2.3% , there seems to be no real rush to be in this one at this moment but the market seems happy to give them the benefit of the doubt for one more quarter.

 

Most markets opened higher and stayed higher throughout the day after the recovery in Wall Street last night. Ireland was marginally down at the close.

 

The currency markets are where it is all at with increasing pressure now on the UK which is losing ground to even the Euro this afternoon.

 

Here is a brief synopsis of our expectations for the key Irish results next week.

 

KINGSPAN

FY '09 Results Preview (due Monday, 1st March)

Expected FY 2009 EPS decline of 67% reflects the impact of a 33% sales decline, partly mitigated by cost

reduction. The sales decline reflects weaker demand, particularly in UK and Irish non-res construction,

and weaker stg£/€ translation. Outlook comments on volume trends and order intake will be of key

interest. Hold

 

ALLIED IRISH BANKS

2009 Results Preview (due Tuesday, March 2nd)

AIB's 2009 results are expected to include major losses. Key areas of interest will be commentary on EC

restructuring requirements, NAMA, capital initiatives and the continuing level of underlying profitability.

In addition to any update on NAMA discounts, non-NAMA credit quality will be closely watched.

Management's ability to outline a credible revitalisation plan will be of interest. HOLD

 

PADDY POWER

FY'09 Results Preview (Due Tuesday, 2nd March)

We look for Paddy Power to report FY operating profit of €64.7m (-14.6% yoy) and diluted EPS of 115.8c

(-15.9% yoy), impacted by the tough consumer environment and poor run of results in the second half.

Focus will be on outlook, with commentary on the online and Australian businesses of particular interest.

HOLD.

 

CRH

FY '09 Results Preview (due Tuesday, 2nd March)

Expected FY'09 EPS decline of 60% reflects a significant drop in demand and €200m of restructuring

costs. On outlook, we look for indications that sales have stabilised. We expect the positive impact from

US fiscal stimulus, cost savings and a modest improvement in US housing activity can outweigh further

weakening in Europe and US non-res in 2010.

 

IRISH LIFE AND PERMANENT

2009 Results Preview (due Wednesday, March 3rd)

IL&P's 2009 results will reflect the difficult economic and market conditions of the period. In the life

business, investment and experience variances are expected to generate a pre-tax loss, while

funding and credit costs result in a loss for the bank too. The key focus will be the capital position, arrears

trends and funding within the bank. The VIF securitisation and persistency trends are key subjects for the

life business.

 

FBD

Results preview (due Wednesday, March 3rd)

We expect weak 2009 results due to pressure on volumes and weather related claims. Focus will be on

the risks to forecasts from weak volumes and high claims, and possible write downs in the

investment portfolio and on property assets. FBD's balance sheet and cash generation remain strong.

Earnings are forecast to increase as volumes stabilise and pricing improves. Reiterate BUY

 

GRAFTON

FY '09 Results Preview (due Thursday, 4th March)

The expected 82% fall in EPS in 2009 reflects margin pressure in both UK and Ireland from significant LFL

sales declines: expected to be -13% yoy in the UK and -34% yoy in Ireland. We expect a full-year result

of a little over breakeven, with a moderation in the rate of sales decline (easier base) and a greater

impact from cost cutting in H2.

 

Have a good evening and  great weekend sports fans …Ireland vs England looks more mouth watering than France vs Wales…

 

Ireland at evens ? looks like a good bet.

 

Liam

 

___________________________________________

Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

Tel.: 353-1-2404171

Mob:353-87-2313505

www.merrion-capital.com

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