Liams Last Post : Market nerves continue , ECB lends less , the recession ends in Ireland but US employment casts a shadow

Good afternoon ,

 

What an amazing day , markets still absolutely in hyper nervous mode…with sudden lurches up and down today across all markets and a gap down ahead of the US opening.

 

Corporate news continues to be largely absent , I sent out an idea suggesting that CRH looks interesting as a trade here. I do believe this is the case.

 

Markets were inspired to rally for a while this morning on news that ECB lending requirements were a lot less than anticipated however the disappointing US employment data pushed the sentiment needle back into the bear zone.

European banks had to borrow just €132bn from the ECB today – a lot less than the huge numbers anticipated but it was the US numbers which unnerved markets again. The ADP survey showed US private employers added just 13,000 jobs in June, compared to expectations of around 60,000. And it compares to a 57,000 increase in May, revised upwards from 55,000.Another sign of a slowdown in the US economy - added to the existing fears of a cooling of growth in China and a downturn in Europe due to the planned austerity measures - was exactly not what was required today and it certainly does not bode too well for the non-farm payroll numbers due on Friday. Consensus  expectations is for a fall of around 110,000 in June.  It is a but like hearing one shoe drop and waiting for the next one.

I have to go home and tell my son that the piercingly incisive question he asked on Sunday has been answered, No he did not even ask what the meaning of life the universe and everything is , he merely wanted to know when the recession was going to end.  Well the good news for him  is that as of today the recession in Ireland is officially over after two years. The 2.7 percent increase in seasonally adjusted gross domestic product followed a 2.7 percent drop in the previous three months according to the CSO. In the year, the economy contracted 0.7 percent. A separate report showed that jobless claims rose in June, pushing the unemployment rate to 13.4 percent, the highest since September 1994. Ireland's economy probably continued to strengthen with a13 percent drop in the euro over the past year making goods more competitive abroad. Irish manufacturing expanded for a third month in May and consumer confidence rose this month.

So on that cheery note ,  Enjoy your evening

Liam

 

 

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Liam Boggan

　

Merrion Stockbrokers

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